September 29 - October 27, 2024: Issue 635

 

Jacqui Scruby WINS!: First Ever Lady Pittwater MP Signals A Historic Shift In the electorate's thinking

Jacqui Scruby and her daughter at the 2023 Avalon Beach RSL Anzac Day 11am Commemorative Service.
Counting close at 10pm Saturday evening October 19 with the figures made available showing Jacqui Scruby has 53.69% of the Formal Votes at 18,315, compared to nearest Candidate, the Liberal  party's Georgia Ryburn's 14,477 and 42.44%.

 

Saturday evening's Initial Count Two Candidates Preferred records: 

Jacqui Scruby: 18,550 - 55.4%

Georgia Ryburn: 14,948 - 44.6%

Doug Rennie, Libertarian party, has secured 1,323 formal votes at close of counting, or 3.88%, which means, even with this party announcing they would direct their preferences to the Liberal candidate, Mrs. Scruby has an unassailable lead for the seat of Pittwater.

Interestingly, the NSW Electoral Commission's statistics record the Early Voting total as: 17,013 or 29.75%

Although there are still votes to be counted, Pittwater holds 56,345 electors and only 35,112 have been counted so far, and it has been stated Liberal Georgia Ryburn was not going to conceded Saturday night, Pittwater looks set to have its second independent MP and the first MP to be woman in the history of the seat.

Former Pittwater Council councillor Alex McTaggart won the seat as an independent in a 2005 by-election.

The Liberals will retain Epping and Hornsby with their 2024 By-election candidates for those seats, after Liberal MP's Matt Kean and Dominic Perrottet stepped out of politics, having an unbeatable lead at close of counting on Saturday, 10pm.

This means the NSW Parliament will welcome three new first-time state MP's, Monica Tudehope for Epping (and daughter of Damien Tudehope), James Wallace for Hornsby (corporate lawyer and former state party vice-president), and Jacqui Scruby for Pittwater.

Although the Liberal party faithful will be pleased with the results at Epping and Hornsby, the word from Liberal elders, that first generation of children of the founders of the party, now 80+ years mostly, is that people who excel as individuals in every other area and aspect of their lives have been found wanting since the last term of the Morrison years at a local, state and federal government level.

For many, Jacqui Scruby represents what has naturally evolved in Australian politics in recent years. 

Her aim is to reinstate statespersonship to Australian politics, to renew the Ted Mack approach - straight talking, forthright, and upright, because there's nothing to hide.

Which should inspire support on all sides and from all quarters.


There is no counting today, Sunday October 20 2024. If there are any further updates from the Pittwater candidates today, October 20th, this page will be updated.

On Saturday evening, at a post-election day event at Mona Vale, Georgia Ryburn told the party faithful;

"It has been the honour of my life to run as your Liberal candidate,"

During the campaign, Ms Scruby pointed her Liberal opponent as an outsider because she lived outside the Pittwater electorate.

Ms Ryburn said she found that tactic upsetting.

"What hurt me the most was the relentless attacks on me not being a local," she said. "I'm a proud fourth-generation Northern Beaches local."

But of course, Pittwater is not 'the Northern Beaches' or even the 'northern end of the northern beaches' as it was described during Covid lockdowns when exactly the area that was the former boundaries of the Pittwater Council LGA was being isolated.

Then Liberal Premier Gladys Berejiklian did not want to name that area as such due to her party having forcibly amalgamated the same with the Warringah Council, the council the residents fought to free themselves of just over 20 years ago.

With thousands having signed a third petition in recent months, calling for the reinstatement of Pittwater Council, and Ms Ryburn standing as the representative of the political party that forcibly amalgamated the area back with Warringah Council, this too would have weighed against her by conducting a 'Northern Beaches' narrative in an area that considers itself 'Pittwater', and especially while campaigning for the seat of Pittwater.

Atop this, Georgia Ryburn, as could be read from her candidature enrolment, does live outside Pittwater, had never been seen in Pittwater prior to the by-election, had voted against Pittwater aspirations and residents while a Manly representative on the Colaition created Northern Beaches Council - and could not, as a resident from outside of Pittwater, vote for herself.

Jacqui Scruby was happy but cautious at a post-election meet up with supporters at Avalon Beach Surf Club on Saturday evening - she would wait until the pre-poll votes had been counted once counting resumed.

On Sunday Jacqui Scruby posted via Instagram:

''Pittwater deserves better and you agree! Here’s to community representation free from party politics, to deliver things important to you (esp MV Rd) and to have your voice on NSW issues in Parliament!

Thank you to all the community support and hours of incredible volunteering! Local people power is what defines this type of representation!

Many are calling it a win… but we’ve been here before and I’ll wait until prepoll votes are counted… but it’s looking very exciting so far!!!

We are very lucky to be living in such a robust democracy! Every vote counts so thank you to everyone who voted. ''

Liberal candidate Georgia Ryburn conceded she would not win the seat on Monday afternoon, by which stage Ms Scruby led the count with more than 56 per cent of the vote on a two-candidate preferred basis.

Two Candidate Preferred Report Parliamentary Election: Pittwater
Report was last updated on - 21/10/2024 2:44:41 PM:

Jacqui Scruby: 24,207 - 56.2%
Georgia Ryburn:  18,900 - 43.8%

At 4.15 p.m Jacqui Scruby posted:

''With prepoll booths now counted, I just received a gracious conceding phone call from Georgia. I thanked her for standing and being willing to serve Pittwater.

I am incredibly honoured to go forward and serve the Pittwater community as a member of NSW Parliament. With the parliamentary term half way through, work starts today to represent you, fight for Pittwater and protect what makes living here so special.''



Key Dates for the remainder of the 2024 Pittwater By-election are:

  • Friday, 1 November 2024:6pm: Close of postal vote return
  • Tuesday, 5 November 2024: 10am: Distribution of preferences
  • Wednesday, 6 November 2024: Declaration of results
  • Friday, 8 November 2024: Return of the writ

Counts overview

The ballot papers will undergo the following counts:

Initial count

The first count of first preference votes, conducted at voting centres on election night and at the Election Manager’s office from election night onwards. An initial count is conducted for each venue and vote type (for example, postal votes and declaration votes). The initial count is a manual count.

Ballot papers are examined for formality and sorted to the first preference for each candidate or to the Informals pile – for example, ballot papers where there is no first preference recorded or that cannot be sorted to a candidate as they appear to be informal).

Note: The Initial Count is considered an indicative count only.

Two candidates preferred (TCP) count

Before election day, the Electoral Commissioner selects the two candidates who are considered most likely to be the two remaining candidates after the distribution of preferences. These are known as the ‘TCP candidates’.

The TCP count is conducted immediately after the initial count by distributing each of the non-TCP candidates’ ballot papers to the TCP candidate with the next highest preference on each ballot paper. It is a manual count.

Note: The TCP Count is not the official distribution of preferences. It provides an indication of the likely election outcome. 

Check count

The check count is a combination of a manual process (batching) and a data entry process:

  • Batching: sorting the ballot papers for each candidate into single preference (for example, there is only a single ’1’, a single ‘tick’, or a single ‘cross’ on the ballot paper and no other preferences) and multi preference. The Informals pile is sorted into Blanks and Non-Blanks.
  • Registration: entering the check count results into the NSW Electoral Commission’s computer count system.
  • Data Entry: entering all preferences on all multi preference ballot papers into the computer count system. The single preference ballot papers for each candidate and the blanks are registered as a bulk figure (during the Registration step above) and do not undergo data entry.

Note: The check count is the official count that is used in the distribution of preferences within the computer count system to determine the elected candidate(s). The check count results, and the TCP results based on the check count will be progressively published on the Results webpage.

The next NSW State Election will be held no earlier than 30 January 2027 and no later than 27 March 2027, to elect the 59th Parliament of New South Wales.

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Updated: Monday October 21, 2024 - 8:20 a.m.

Updated: Monday October 21, 2024 - 4:40 p.m.